Monday, April 6, 2009

Investing in Stock Markets - 2

Investing in Stock Markets - 2

There are plenty of web sites which offer literature on fundamental analysis, technical analysis. Hence, I am not going to dwell on those topics.

Investing in IPO:

Free pricing killed the fancy of IPO. Companies with decent track record are allowed to price the IPO freely i.e they will ask for a good amount called as premium. This move brought down the returns on listing considerably. In full fledged bull market, people price it freely, it gets listed freely - in bear market, number of IPOs are handful. When plenty of people are into IPO funding, you can smell a rat !!!

Hence, i feel, people who apply for IPO should cash their investment on listing and keep the remaining quantity for trading. Risk taking should be done only on left over stocks and not on full quantity allotted. In this way, investors can hold the stocks for ever as they recovered investment amount.

Stock Trading Psychology:

Some of these patterns can be observed in stock markets.

1. Anticipation: Stock market works on anticipation methodology i.e market discounts some information and prices the stock accordingly. One statement which stands out for years is "Buy on rumour and sell on news".

2. Herd mentality: Traders get influenced by news, volume to form patterns. Suddenly, one can witness rally in sugar stocks, fertilizer stocks and they can potentially abandon their interest in short term and switch their loyalties to some other sector. Some people call this "momentum trading" too.

3. Fear factor: Pessimists predict multi year lows. It happens sometimes, it doesn't happen sometimes. But too much of pessimism at too little time can be dangerous like the current pull back of world markets.

4. Irrational exuberance: Opposite of fear factor. When the sensex was at 21k lot of people were still bullish. This is also equally dangerous. Warning for points 3 & 4: when you hear too many number predictions, cut your trading and tread cautiously.

5. Demand and Supply: According to me, market works on demand and supply factor coupled with liquidity and sentiment mostly. Stock price goes up when demand increases and decreases when supply increases.

6. Liquidity: Mutual funds and institutions liquidity situation is a major factor which determines short term fluctuations. Markets generally flares up on excess liquidity - i.e cash availability to invest;

7. Charm: Stock has to have some charm to survive. Reliance has got life long charm so far and it indicates the trend majorly. Stocks like Chennai Petro, Numeric power does not have charm to attract trading volume. It is very important to focus on this point while investing for long term.

8. Cash in Balance sheet: Cash is king on all kind markets. Cash allows companies to expand operations, make acquisition etc. Companies like Infosys, sun pharma, hero honda are able to weather the storm because of this.

9. Sentiment: Market sentiment could be a decisive factor when you trade for short term. You can trade for inter mediate swings based on this factor.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Investing in Stock Markets - 1

Investing in Stock Markets - 1

I have decided to write my thoughts on investing in stock markets. Pls note that I am not claiming myself a genius in stock markets. But I am associated with stock markets from 1992 and learned few good things. I think, it is important for me to share the basics with society or investing public. I would recommend to use it with your own discretion. All the views expressed are my own and derived from my own experience and any resemblance is purely co-incidental.

Introduction

1. Be ready to lose some portion of your capital / money before investing. Your capital must be free from your daily requirements i.e., you must not buy a stock and sell the same just to pay off your rent ! Stock market is not a place to play when you have less capital, less time frame, faster rotation etc.

2. Who are you? Are you a speculator? Trader? or Investor? is something you must decide before you start playing in stock market.

Speculator is the one who trades daily and trades for even 50paise fluctuation. Trader does not carry over position to next day or takes delivery of stocks.

Trader can take position in cash market or derivatives and plays for small fluctuations to make profits. He can go long or short depending on that days movement and makes the most out of it. Speculator carries out 3 to 25 trades a day and aims for say Rs.8000/- to Rs.10,000/- as daily profit.

Trader is the one trades with a view to square off position between 1 to 7 days. Trader can follow technical, fundamental cues and takes position in stocks. Trader does not take momentum position and trades little less frequently. Trader can have long in one counter and short in other stock at the same time too !

Investor is the one who can take delivery of stock and have some medium term of view. He is mostly looking to buy and sell stocks and there by represents bull attitude. Investors must buy only on dips or huge fall days and can sell on rallies. A true investor would not chase stocks on gap up days but he places the order on falling days at various low prices and would wait for uptrend to happen. In other words, investor is a contrarion who buys on gloomy days !

3. Why one must play in stock market? Stock market can give decent returns provided you are disciplined. Else, it can take away your capital or make you to get struck for a long period. But keep it as secondary activity., if the time spent on stocks overtakes your main activity that means you are addicted.

Simple Guidelines

1. Determine your bet size - your bet size determines your loss or profit. Make sure your bet size is in line with how much you can lose.

2. Trade in A group stocks only. Do not venture out in other stocks until you master the trick.

3. Do watch Business channels, Do read business papers - but make your own decision.

4. Learn the basics of financial terminologies - like sales, EPS, PE Ratio etc. Learn the basics of technical analysis too.

5. Learn to book losses otherwise you might get struck in bad company stock for years.

6. Be disciplined, apply stop loss when you trade on technical advice.

7. Make baby steps, you can not become crorepati in a short term

8. Maintain simple excel sheet of your trades for future analysis

9. Do not blindly copy some body's trade

10. Try to be little contrarion while trading.

11. Have target for every trade

12. Use your discretion on market gabbars, broker tips. No one will kill you if you dont follow them on each and every call !

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Irony of song dedication

Sun Music, Isaiaruvi generally broadcast some songs. They dont take situation or wish under consideration and generally play some songs. These are the

current season songs and it can keep changing ! But Sometimes the mismatch gets so funny on some flip-flops. Here my take on the irony on WISH !!!!!

Some one calling to wish Birthday for near and dear ones, and the song dedication goes like this !

Some wish - birthday songs

1. pichai paathiram
2. free-a vudu maame
3. my name is billa
4. Ka Ka Ka
5. appa amma velayattu

Some one calling to pass wedding day wish for near and dear ones, and the song dedication goes like this !

1. daddy mummy from villu
2. kaadhal siluvayil
3. enna pulle senje nee
4. sakkarai nilave
5. Chinna veeda varattuma

Some sexy, tasmac songs for breakfast ! Imagine one is in a hurry to leave home and face hectic traffic with these "frames in the mind" !

1. where is the party tonight
2. kannadasan, karaikudi
3. Oru mugamo
4. Kodana Kodi
5. kathazhai kannale kuthadhey
6. Ondra renda aasaigal

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Corporates & Morality

Obama on AIG Bonus:

"This is a corporation that finds itself in financial distress due to recklessness and greed," But he said the impropriety of the bonuses goes beyond economics. "It's about our fundamental values,"

"All across the country, there are people who are working hard and meeting their responsibilities every single day, without the benefit of government bailouts or multimillion-dollar bonuses. You've got a bunch of small-business people here who are struggling just to keep their credit line open," Obama said.

"And all they ask is that everyone, from Main Street to Wall Street to Washington, play by the same rules. That is an ethic that we have to demand."

If you think what Obama told is bad, then read this:

“Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves”. - Andrew Jackson, 1767-1845, 7th US President, when forcing the closure of the Second Bank of the US in 1836 by revoking its charter. (Contributed by Haresh Chetnani)

Monday, March 23, 2009

Lyrics of Pala pala from Ayan

Lyrics of Pala pala from Ayan

Pallavi

Pala palakkara pagal-ah nee
Pada padakkara agal-ah nee
Anal adikkira pugal-ah nee
Nagalin nagala nee

Mazhai adikkira mughila nee
Thimir adikkira thigil-ah nee
Mana manakura agila nee
Mulla malara nee

Soodaga illa vittal
Rathathil vegam illai
Settaigal illa vittal.,Inimai illai
Pootai thaan thaanda vittal
Vannathu poochi illai
Veettai nee thaanda vittal vaanamey illai

Vaana villai poley ilamayada
Thinam puthumayada, adhai anubavida
Kaalam kaalamaagha perusunggada
Romba pazhasungada nee munney munney vaada vaada

Pala palakkara pagal-ah nee
Pada padakkara agal-ah nee
Anal adikkira pugal-ah nee
Nagalin nagala nee

Mazhai adikkira mughila nee
Thimir adikkira thigil-ah nee
Mana manakura agila nee
Mulla malara nee

Charanam 1

Etti thodum vayadhu idhu
Oru vettu kathi pol irukumm
Athisayam yenna-vendral
Athan iru pakkam koor-irukkum
Kanavakku seyal koduthaal
Andha sooriyanil sedi mulaikumm
pulangalai adakki vaithaal
dhinam pudhu pudhu sugam kidaikumm

Kaalil kothum aani
Un yeni yetru kaami
Pala inban vali serthu
oru mottai katti vaa nee vaa nee

Pala pala ...

Charanam 2

Idhu varai nenjil irukum
Sila thunban-galai naam marappom
Gadigaaram mul tholaithu
Thodu vaanam varai poi varuvom
Adai maazhai vaasal vanthaal
Kaiyil kudai-indri vaa nanaivom
Adaiyaalam-thaan thuarappom
Yella desathillum poi vasipom

Yenna kondu vanthom
Naam yenna kondu povom
Ada indha nodi podhum
Va vera enna vendum vendum

Pala pala....

Lyrics of Honey honey from Ayan

Lyrics of Honey honey from Ayan

Pallavi

my goodness

Hey honey honey kannil honey, aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Hey honey honey kannil honey, Aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Kanni ival kaninee..adada..
Kan avizhum gavani..adada..
Kanda idam thodu nee..idhu kaadhal konda meni..
Ahh konjam idhai gavani..azhagaa..
Konjuvadhil-vathanee..amudhaa..
Anju mudhal avanee..un aasai solla vaa nee

Kuthu mathipaaha, muthu parippaaha
Mella mella thulla thulla
Mogam varuthaa?
Konjam inippaaha, konjam kulipaaha,
Mutham vittu mutham vittu mukthi adaiga

Hey honey honey kannil honey, aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Hey honey honey kannil honey, Aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

CHorus 1

Yeah..Must tick-ih sweet little honey,
Gime all your lovin and i’l give u all my money,
Yeah..u r my cute little darling..
I wanna luv u luv u all nite long in..
Ah..I wanna shake that body,
Come on girl i wanna shake your body,
You and me all night long,
All night long and i'm singin this song..

Charanam 1

Azhaganadhu lips and the lipsy,
Iravanadhu yeppavum sexy,
Soodanadhu pennidam pepsi,
Sugama adhai swasi..

m: hey vellai azhagey, en ullam unakke

Aah miss-aanadhu nenjuley nenju,
Fix-anadhu theeyile panju
Kicks-aanadhu yennuley senju lips-aanadhu konju

Hello sugavaasi, yennai vanthu swaasi,
Vatta vatta vennilave vandhu pathungu..
Octopus-u baby, naanthan unthan toffee,
Mella mella mella mella yennai muzhunggu..

Hey honey honey kannil honey, aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Hey honey honey kannil honey, Aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

CHorus 2

overloaded

Feel my lovin yow,
You gonna feel my lovin yow,
C’mon be my lovin,
C’mon be my lovin yow,
C’mon be my lovin,
C’mon be my lovin yow..

Charanam 2

Oru madhiri paarthadhu yaaru, Adhu madhiri pesiya-thaaru
Puthu madhiri thottadhu yaaru, Yenn madhiri yaaru

m: Nee kannai asaika, Naan unnai isaika..gamapa..

Strict-agave ennoda pesi,
Mute-agave ennoda thoosi
light-agave ennayum vaasi
night aanadhu raasi..

Aalu unmai kaalu, Apple color tholu,
aayirathil oruthi naan vandhu pazaghu..
Romba senja ice-su, Jannal senja thigh-su
musu musu musunnu-dhan indha azhagu..

Hey honey honey kannil honey, aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Hey honey honey kannil honey, Aasai varum-ini
Hey many many money money, Naaney mudhal kani

Kanni ival kaninee..adada..
Kan avizhum gavani..adada..
Kanda idam thodu nee..idhu kaadhal konda meni..
konjam idhai gavani..azhagaa..
Konjuvadhil-vathanee..amudhaa..
Anju mudhal avanee..un aasai solla vaa nee

Kuthu mathipaaha, muthu parippaaha
Mella mella thulla thulla
Mogam varuthaa?
Konjam inippaaha, konjam kulipaaha,
Mutham vittu mutham vittu mukthi adaiga

Hey vingga vingga vinggaaaa,
Vingga vingga vinggaaa,
Vingga vingga vingga vingga vingga vingga vinggggg...

Hey vingga vingga vinggaaaa,
Vingga vingga vinggaaa,
Vingga vingga vingga vingga vingga vingga vinggggg...

Lyrics of O Aayiye Aayiye from Ayan

Lyrics of O Aayiye Aayiye from Ayan

m: O aayiye aayiye yaahi thoovum poomazhai nenjile
o vaaasame swasame vaasame vandhu mayyal kondathu yennile

Nenjukkul nuzhaindhu moochukkul alaindhu
Kannukkul malarginra kanavu nee
en kayyil valaindhu en meedhu mithandhu
salayil nadakkindra nilavu nee

Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana
Neela neela nira theethaana
Theeyil theeyil vizha thithikkindren naanthaana

Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana
neela Neela nira theethaana
Theeyil theeyil vila thithikkindren naanthaana

f: oaaahiyeayaahi yeayaaahi yeayaaaahi thoovum poomazhai nenjile
o vaaasame swasame vaasame vandhu mayyal kondathu yennile

Nenjukkul nuzhaindhu moochukkul alaindhu
Kannukkul malarginra kanavu nee
en kayyil valaindhu en meedhu mithandhu
maalayil nadakkindra ninaivum nee

Charanam 1

m: Oru kannil oru kannil amudhamum
Maru kannil maru kannil madhuramum
sumakindra sumakindra azhakiyaley

f: Oru kayil oru kayil aganggalum
Maru kayil maru kayil suhangalum
Yenakkulle kodukindra iniyavaney

m: Idhazh poo endral adhil then yenge
Ingu poovey thaan thaen thaen thaen thaen thaen

Vovhooooohoooooooooooooooohoooovohhoooooooooo...

oaaahiyeayaahi yeayaaahi yeayaaaahi thoovum poomazhai nenjile
o vaaasame swasame vaasame vandhu mayyal kondathu yennile

Nenjukkul nuzhaindhu moochukkul alaindhu
Kannukkul malarginra kanavu nee
en kayyil valaindhu en meedhu mithandhu
maalayil nadakkindra ninaivum nee

Charanam 2

f: Imaikadha imaikaadha kangalum
Yenakaaga yenakaaga vendi nee
Unaikandu unaikandu rasitheney

m: Mudhal mutham muthal mutham thandhathum
idhazh mutham idhazh mutham endrathum
adhai enni adhai enni initheney

f: Sudum poongaatre suthi-pogadhey
Inivaa ingey mazhai chaaral poovaai

m: oaaahiyeayaahi yeayaaahi yeayaaaahi thoovum poomazhai nenjile

f: Vhovaaasame swasame vaasame vandhu mayyal kondadhu ennile

m: Nenjukkul nuzhaindhu moochukkul alaindhu
Kannukkul malarginra kanavu nee

f: en kayyil valaindhu en meedhu mithandhu
maalayil nadakkindra ninaivum nee

Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana
Neela neela nira theethaana
Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana

Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana
Neela neela nira theethaana
Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana

Neeyum neeyum adi neethaana...