Monday, May 5, 2008

Indian Stock market Outlook - May 2008

Stocks have rallied smartly through April 2008 and placed at good levels. I predict this current rally to fizzle out around 18250 to 18500 levels some time in May. Cement, Steel, capital goods sectors are ignored, Technology / IT stocks, Banks (private banks in particular), real estate, telecom, pharma,Oil and FMCG rallied considerably in april.

The markets rallied due to shortage of stock supply rather than a strong apptetite of buying - lack of volumes are a proof for this logic.


Hence, it would be difficult for this rally to gain strengh above 18500 levels. Inflation, airline bankruptcies, US credit card defaults and US housing market trends would decide the future course of markets.

Q4 – India Earnings Report

I record my ratings to this Quarterly result of Indian Corporate, not in any particular order…. Strictly based on what is reported and not based on future outlook or movement of stock prices;

Excellent

  1. GVK Power
  2. Axis Bank (Set some standards – excellent management)
  3. Infosys Tech
  4. Satyam Comp
  5. India Bull Securities
  6. Motilal Oswal Securities
  7. India Infoline
  8. BILT
  9. Sintex
  10. HDFC Bank
  11. Bank of India
  12. CEAT
  13. Yes Bank
  14. Reliance Capital (Topline growth is outstanding)
  15. IDFC (Future Heavyweight of finserv)
  16. CESC
  17. Glenmark
  18. BEL
  19. Sterlite Industries
  20. Mahindra Lifespace
  21. Titan
  22. Bharti (Airtel)
  23. Nicolas Piramal
  24. NOIDA Toll
  25. MMTC
  26. Power Grid
  27. Mindtree Consulting
  28. Karuturi network (KNL)

Okay-Okay or Neither Here Nor There

  1. Reliance Industries
  2. ICICI Bank
  3. RCOM
  4. IDEA (Topline growth not good)
  5. Ranbaxy (Profitability is not improving)
  6. Cipla
  7. HDFC Ltd
  8. R-Com
  9. Bhushan Steel
  10. Canara Bank (Struggling to grow)
  11. Indian Bank (Struggling to grow)
  12. LIC Housing
  13. Jain Irrigation
  14. NTPC Ltd
  15. HCL Tech
  16. ZEE television
  17. Videocon Industries

Bad

  1. IFCI
  2. ACC
  3. Gujarat Alkali
  4. Wockardt Pharma
  5. BHEL (Abysmal relationship between topline and bottomline)
  6. GE Shipping
  7. DLF (Still a proprietory company !!!)
  8. Aditya Birla Nova (Insurance premium googly)
  9. Grasim
  10. NALCO
  11. SRF Ltd (Re-structuring only option to improve)
  12. Essar Oil (Washout Q4 but no indication from management)
  13. Siemens Ltd (Consistently failing market perception – No hope on OPM)
  14. Maruti Udyog (Surprise depreciation decision – but only good representative of Indian car industry)
  15. NDTV Ltd (120 crore loss – come on Prannoy – do some re-jig)

Friday, May 2, 2008

Kamalhasan's Dasavatharam Audio Release

Himesh Reshammya (Himesh Bhai) has composed tunes for the first time to a south indian movie. We know him for his techno sounds, nasal Ooooo's in Hindi. Let us see whats in store for us...Good that i didnt have any expectations :)

Mukuntha: A soothing bhajan song on Lord Krishna, well sung by Sadhna Sargam. On the final stages of the song, one grandma's (Kamal ?) voice adds up and contributes as distraction !!!

Ulaga Nayagan: Clean techno song. Full of glorification to Kamal. Nothing beyond that. One line of the song goes like this "United Nations will invite you" by Vairamuthu, utter nonsense !!! Gentle feminine voice of Vinith carries this song nicely. Irony of this song, "come dance with me before you go" is the most attractive line which keeps lingering on our minds:)

Kaa Karupanukkum: Another techno song, well sung by Shalini Singh. But forgettable song.

Kallai Mattum Kandal: Energetically sung by Hariharan and excellent tune. Looks like Kamal puts his "baktha" acting rather than "aetheist" acting. His character name is most likely "rangarajan" (Ah what a kandupidippu !!!). This song catches the attention immediately and ending with nice aalap. Vaali has written this song very well.

Example:
Saivam endru parthal deivam theriyathu

theivam endru parthal samayam kidayathu

kallai mattum kandal kadavul theriyathu

kadavul mattum kandal kall-adhu theriyathu
(If one looks at saivam then one cant see god

if one sees god then one cant see community

if one sees idol / stone then one cant see god

if one sees god then one cant see the idol / stone)

Oh Oh Sanam: Himesh bhai has sung this techno tamil song. Another forgettable song.
Oh Oh Sanam: Kamal has sung this slower version - so that one can understand the lyrics :); Nothing more that. Beat which comes after pallavi and before the first stanza sounds like the beat of "Ah Ah aashiqui hain meri" of 36 China town.

Audio release function: I caught up with this function on May 1 on TV. My opinion of this entire program goes like this:

Oscar Ravichandran built his early career by successfully distributing Jackie Chan's movies. So., he invited Jackie to this function. We respect the sincerity of the producer for not forgeting his past. You are very nice sir....

But things happened on that day can be classified as utter nonsense, sheer waste of money, time, energy of everyone concerned. The entire tamasha can be called as "self glorification by you scratch my back and i scratch yours" and "kakkai pidithal or ice" of dignitaries. TN CM has got better things to say about Jackie than Kamal !!!!!

By the way, Dhaam Dhoom song " Pudhu Pudhu" is the only song which sounds attractive and weird for the first 2-3 times. But it sinks in fast after 2-3 attempts and sounds as real cool song of the recent days.

Glorious Indian IT Industry

Indian IT industry started way back in 1970s came to the forefront in Y2K and exponentially grown over many years. I wanted to pay tribute to this glorious ride to top…. As I worked in this industry for the last 7 years, my reading is un-biased & is based out of experience… No special point for timing of this write-up !!!

Things to cherish:

  • Healthiest, powerful growth of middle class (responsible for the growth of Indian Economy)
  • Provided alternative job opportunity to traditional industries
  • Abroad travel
  • Young turks' spending culture
  • Got global recognition by work
  • Exposure to new technology
  • Flat org structure
  • The best application ever developed – Indian railways ticket booking system – by CMC
  • MS Office Suite – most useful application for daily survival


  • Side Effects – Casual Sex as culture, Night-Outs at work, made fire fighting as culture

Things to focus in future

  • Quality of deliverable
  • Pro-active Customer service rather than reactive to customer complaints
  • Focus on Bug reduction
  • Development of Re-Usable components
  • Proper project management
  • Consultative approach


Wednesday, April 30, 2008

The 30 Question Tag

1)LAST MOVIE U SAW IN A THEATRE?
Jodhaa Akbar

2)WHAT BOOK ARE U READING?

Nothing – this week

3)FAVOURITE BOARD GAME?

Monopoly

4)FAVOURITE MAGAZINE?

Kumudam !!! I hate the look and feel of reader's digest. I like to read filmfare while travelling.

5)FAVOURITE SMELLS?

The smells of:

  • Good food
  • Coffee
  • Mehendi
  • Flowers
  • Chocolate
  • Man Vasanai (the first smell emanate from sand when rain hits earth)
  • Sandalwood
  • Scotch Whisky

6)FAVOURITE SOUNDS?

The sounds of:

  • Birds chirping
  • Good music
  • Rain
  • Waves on a beach
  • Sounds made by kids (Kuzhal inithu, yaazh inithu enbar mazhalai sol kelar L )
  • "Vrrr" sound in forest

7)WORST FEELING IN THE WORLD?

The look people give when you meet with some accident

8)WHAT IS THE FIRST THING YOU THINK OF WHEN U WAKE?

What time is it?

9)FAVOURITE FASTFOOD PLACE?
Chennai – Drive-Inn Restaurent (thing of past now
L)

10)FUTURE CHILD'S NAME?
Not applicable
J

11)FINISH THIS STATEMENT—IF I HAD A LOT OF MONEY I'D…
…. roam Europe, Yacht stay, read more and explore more

12)DO U DRIVE FAST?
Yes

13)DO U SLEEP WITH A STUFFED ANIMAL?
I'm too old for that.

14)STORMS–COOL OR SCARY?

Cool, I don't want to be caught in storm anyday !!!

15)WHAT WAS YOUR FIRST CAR?
Honda City

16)FAVOURITE DRINK?
Chilled beer & H2O, fresh lemon soda

17)FINISH THIS STATEMENT-IF I HAD THE TIME I WOULD…
….travel a lot, relax

18)DO YOU EAT THE STEMS ON BROCCOLI?
I don't eat broccoli.

19)IF YOU COULD DYE YOUR HAIR ANY OTHER COLOUR, WHAT WOULD BE YOUR CHOICE?
Black Black Black !!!!!!!

20)NAME ALL THE DIFFERENT CITIES/TOWNS U HAVE LIVED IN?
Bangalore (3 years), Singapore (1 year)

21)FAVOURITE SPORTS TO WATCH?
F1, Tennis & Cricket

22)ONE NICE THING ABOUT THE PERSON WHO SENT THIS TO YOU?
Donno much about her, but sounds a lot like a good girl
J

23)WHATS UNDER YOUR BED?
A/c Remote (under Pillow)

24)WOULD U LIKE TO BE BORN AS YOURSELF AGAIN?
I prefer that way

25)MORNING PERSON OR NIGHT OWL?
Neither, it depends on need

26)OVER EASY OR SUNNY SIDE UP?
Sunny Side Up

27)FAVOURITE PLACE TO RELAX?
My study room, long beaches …

28)FAVOURITE PIE?
Apple Pie

29)FAVOURITE ICECREAM FLAVOUR?
Anyday Choco-Vanilla combo

30)OF ALL THE PEOPLE U HAVE TAGGED, WHO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO RESPOND FIRST?
I tag:

Not tagging anyone L

Monday, April 28, 2008

Answer in One Word Tag

I picked up this tag from Priya's blog
as I had absolutely nothing better to do
L

Yourself: Enthu
Your Partner: Remote
Your Hair: Black
Your Mother: Fond
Your Father: Angry
Your Favorite Item: Stocks
Your Dream Last Night: Children
Your Favorite Drink: Beer
Your Dream Car: Ferrari
Your Dream Home: Lakeside
The Room You Are In: Livingroom
Your Fear: Accident
Where Do You Want To Be In 10 Years: Retired
Who You Hung Out With Last: Friend
What You're Not: Cunning
Muffins: Chocolate
One of Your Wish List Items: Vacation
Time: 17:38 PM
Last Thing You Did: TV
What Are You Wearing: Shorts
Your Favorite Weather: Chill
Your Favorite Book: One?
Last Thing You Ate: True Nice
Your Mood: Lazy
Your Best Friends: Kanaksabai
What Are You Thinking About Right Now: Y V Reddt
Your Car: Honda City
Your Summer: Furnace
What's on your TV: Songs
What is your weather like: Furnace
When Is the Last Time You Laughed: while-ago
Your Relationship Status: Friendly

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Titbits

1. Saw the hindi movie "Race" yesterday. What a great movie with non stop twists and turns.... I dont think any one could have guessed even 50% right. Why cant people nominate these kind of movie to Oscar :)

2. Greatly disappointed after some googling on climate change. There is a prediction that by 2050, potato and peanuts would not be available. Come on, i cant imagine :(

3. Saw Dasavatharam trailor in TV. Impressive indeed !!!

4. "Yenda Ratchasha" song from the tamil movie "Singakutti" is lovely and melodious. Janaki Iyer has sung the song really well.