Sensex at 20k - outlook

Sensex touched 20k. Smiles all around faces who are reading the news in TV. But i found many of the traders lost out the rally and they have not made any big money in the 18 to 20k rally during my normal interaction.

The point of mislead are many of the TV anchors are baby bulls and they mostly have not seen any bear market. Hence, they tend to over hype the upward rally.

Outlook: Caution is the buzz word and focus on stock picking carefully. Buy the performing stocks like capital goods, power, realty, banks and fin serv companies during correction. Avoid IT stocks, Pharma stocks, export companies in near future.

US markets are running with a double edged sword. If they cut interest rates tomorrow, oil prices would go up, dollar would fall and thus creating some imbalance in overall economic scenario.

If they leave the interest rate unchanged, only stock market would be affected. Housing Loan borrowers who are squeezed in credit crunch would anyway are in process of re-negotiation of their loans and some 2m homes are waiting to be grabbed in USA already.

I feel this could be the near time peak for the markets and strongly advise caution on herd mentality of buying stocks. Stocks are not going to fall drastically but might not go up much also from this level. Correction is good for everyone at this level.

Week End Playlist

Sunday, i listened to Duet, Mr.Romeo, Thiruda Thiruda songs....

Bhagavaneyyyy

Oh Lord... kadavule... Konjam Nalla Budhi Kodu....

1. Kumarasamy - Ex-CM - karnataka... He is back again to support BJP
2. Gujarat Riot - Sting Operation participant folks - how bravely they open up like this.... looks like they are sure that law would take its own course.
3. Karan Thapar - some time he should listen to what other person answers
4. MTV Mia - How creatively she dresses !!!
5. Sun TV, KTV, CM tv - for their creative movie based programs and serials especially during festival holidays

Sixer Sidhu & T20

Comparing the various forms of cricket with music, Sidhu said, "Test cricket is like classical music which has survived since ancient ages. One-dayers are like film music that leaves people enthralled and T20 cricket is like disco and rap which provides occasional pleasure in short bursts."

Interesting indeed !!!

Reading books regularly

I like reading books. I started this during my college days (british council member then) and continued till date. I read adventures, mysteries, biographical and character building books.

I sincerely believe it is a good habit and I definitely make it a point to spend around 15m of reading before sleeping.

As of now, i am reading the biography of Virgin's chief Sir Richard Bronson.

Azhagiya Thamizh Magan - Audio - my views

Azhagiya Thamizh Magan audio released yesterday. It has Rahman's music and it comes after the super hit Sivaji. Other recent releases were Sillunu Oru Kadhal & Guru.

Vijay is the hero of this movie and I was expecting some good mass numbers. I didnt have any expectation on the quality of tracks when i bought the CD. And actually, my reaction is mixed and no sense of deja vu for now.

The album contans 6 songs with one old song re-mixed. Lot of singers but no Shankar mahadevan for Vijay for a change !!!

I simply didnt like “Ella pugazum” song at all. I feel still Rahman's song in "Ah Aah" was lot better when compared to this. But the lyrics are good to suit Vijay's image.

My favourites songs are ponmagal and marlyn manroe. Remix of Pongal is fresh and sounds really well. Marlyn Manroe song is very well sung and it has catchy tune and sound. Can be very well compared with Style song of Sivaji. Both are most exciting tracks of this album.

Valayappati and Madhuraiku are little above average but not outstanding. Lyrics are very decent in these tracks. Some how, Rahman is trying to use "melam" for tamil mass numbers and it works here too. Valayappati has got some valuable carnatic raaga mix too.

Kaelaamal kaiyile track is melody and it is definitely little different and the interlude music is definitely good and catchy. Very decent number.

Overall 6 out of 10. I am happy for one thing, no koothu pattu and predictable sound. Singers have done a damn good job.

Mysore Trip

Do visit the following link to check out my mysore trip photos.

http://picasaweb.google.com/svijayganesh/MysoreTrip

Brindavan Gardens - Mysore

Hats off to officials who maintain Brindavan Gardens, Mysore.

I visited the garden earlier some ten 10 years back and visited this week. It is still beautiful and lot of new facilities have been created. Illumination in the evening is irresistible.

Officials are due for this pat as they are consistently doing this for over 30 years.

More on my trip later next week.

Tamil comedy scenes

I love tamil comedians and their comedy scenes.

Best of vadivelu (in my view) are listed below:

1. Nallavannu Sollitamma....
2. Checking varuvanle varunvanle....
3. Sirikarathu MGR mathiri aana panradhu ellam nambiar mathiri thane irukku
4. U mean wasteland
5. Nee Aaniye pudunga venam
6. Venaam valikuthu...
7. Tea shop - Kidney theft scene
8. Tea shop - white dress - kal mel kal - sakkadai scene
9. Namma tea raasi anney
10. Bus stand - Pandiarajan - vadivelu - car pickup and fight - pattasu scene

Best of vivek are listed below:

1. 750 spare parts-la odatha vandi
2. Indha elai sizum onga payya sizum patha
3. Naama mattum color color-a chutney
4. Lord labakku das
5. Enakkule evvalovo theramaigal olinchu-rukku
6. Minor kunju
7. okkarum oye... okkarum...
8. ivlo packet....
9. vivek - satya raj - thiruvilayadal type q & a
10. Orey mathirai ella vyadhium poyidum

Did i miss out anything?

Current US Economy - an analysis

US economy is not doing that well. US is struggling to cope with mortgage related issues like high interest rates, falling real estate prices which indirectly resulting in pre-closure or credit related issues. Added to that, increasing energy prices, not so comfortable job market resulted in slowing down of economy and high inflation.


What lies ahead for future?


1. Consumer behaviour - I do not think consumers would stop spending. They can either keep on borrowing until they go completely broke or manage within their limits. American consumers lived out of credit in the past and it is difficult to change their behaviour. They can bit slow down but cannot be halted. I think, the credit card outstanding is some where hovering around 800billion dollars or so.

2. USA Economy - Yes, it has slowed down but it still remains the largest export market in international trade.


3. USA viewed in geo-political arena - USA is most cursed and most loved at the same time. Politically, US is not loved but USA "culture" is loved by most people. (Let us not get into right or wrong here). Junk foods, consumer brands, jobs, music, movies to name few.

4. Immigration laws of USA - USA immigration laws are most friendly when compared to many developed countries, US still remains in demand.


5. USA in Arms trade, Space - US is in complete control of arms trade for most of the world and they continue to thrive on weak and non-united middle east, Asia, erst while Russia, Africa. USA continue to flourish in space technology.

6. Housing Market - considering all this, i think, signs of economic weakness could be short-lived as immigrants and foreign nationals could buy properties in USA and maintain or even improve demand and supply over the next 10 years.


7. USA would continue to remain the vital force for another 15-25 years. And the only situation which can bring the economic downfall of USA is united Asia (which includes China, Korea), Middle East, Russia and to some extent Euro Zone. This would take a real long term to materialise.


8. Hence, to summarise, in my understanding, slowdown in USA could be short-lived and USA Economy (and not stock market alone) would come back with vengeance if one would view of 2-7 years.

New flavours of stock market

Every market rise or fall would result in some sectors or stocks are favoured to rise more or less compared to others. This 15k to 18k sensex rise resulted in some great appreciation or non-participation of stocks and some of which are listed below for basic understanding of which sector moving:

1. Reliance Communication
2. Reliance Energy
3. RIIL
4. Adlabs
5. IDFC
6. IDEA
7. HDIL
8. DLF
9. ICICI Bank
10. Maruti
11. Tata Steel
12. L & T
13. J P Associates
14. Suzlon
15. Punj Lloyd
16. Jindal steel
17. VSNL
18. Mercatar Lines (MLL)
19. Reliance Industries
20. GMDC
21. Reliance Capital
22. Sterlite
23. Infosys
24. Tata Power
25. Rajesh Exports

Laggards

1. Aurobindo Pharma
2. M & M
3. Indian Bank
4. PNB
5. Sun Pharma
6. Dr. Reddy
7. Cipla
8. Hindalco
9. BPCL & HPCL
10. TVS Motor
11. i-flex
12. Tech Mahindra
13. Mphasis BFL

Disclaimer

I am very passionate about stock market and economics and follow that closely. I am an investor and my stock recommendations are made in good faith and most of it are my own interpretation or analysis. Hence, the disclaimer below.

Disclaimer

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The User warrants that he/she/it shall obtain independent investment advice before making any Investment based on such recommendation. Investors are strictly advised to adher to implement stop loss method to avoid losses related to trading.

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Breaking News - Sensex 18k

It is official... Finally sensex touched 18k just a while ago. It is a great achievement considering 9% growth with obstacles like PSU disinvestment, Nuclear Deal imbroglio, Communinist's speed breaker in reforms etc...

Indian Stock Markets

New theory or syllabus in vogue for the last fortnight in Indian stock markets.

The index is going up but Advances - Declines ratio is having -ve bias for most of the last fortnight.

What does it mean

a. Portfolio re-shuffling is going on full swing.
b. People are selling stocks of some industries and shifting the money to some other industry. Example from IT stocks to Power stocks.
c. Dont always look at sensex or nifty to execute your trades. Tread carefully and look for patterns.
d. Always look for Charm (industries or stocks which has a charm of most of players). Like Reliance has been darling of stock markets for over 20 years. There is no point in betting underperforming stocks which does not have market charm.
e. Example for the above - look the return given by Patni when compared to Hexaware. Both are second rung stocks but their charm is totally different.

Happy investing !!!

Financial Biggies

Financial Biggies like Meryll, Goldman, UBS, Morgan, JP Morgan announced their results in the last fortnight. Citi's results are still to come.

One thing for sure from them are, money making is a damn serious business. Proprietary trading is here to stay. Banks are making money in multiple ways like lending through various loans, investing in companies, proprietary trading, FX etc... Looks like most of the banks are betting huge through trading as the credit growth is sluggish in the last 6 months or so.

Fascinating days ahead until March 08 for sure for the serious players.

On the Move - Honda

Honda cars on the move all over the world. The beat their rivals Toyota sales in US last month. Toyota sales consistently coming down over last 3 months.

The success story attributed to new, highly refined Accord, Civic.

Congrats Honda. Happy to see some manufacturer pushing sales through new design, techno improvement which brings out better mileage, comfortable manoeuvring compared to 10 years old highly rehashed Toyota Corolla.

The Hindu - Highly Biased editorial

Background - SC's comments on DMK's bandh sorry strike -

Karunanidhi said it was only a hunger strike by the ruling party. However, only 61 buses of the state government's 16 thousand buses were running because of the strike.As its orders were flouted, an angry Supreme Court said the state could be put under President's Rule. But the allies of the DMK were quick to come to the chief ministers defence.''If this is the attitude of the DMK Government, the UPA Government should not feel shy of dismissing it and impose President's Rule,'' the court observed. It paralysed the people's movement, business on Oct 1.


The Hindu published Editorial on Wednesday's Newspaper - It went on blaming excessive activism by Judiciary.

But the point needs to be taken is:

1. Bandh is viewed as Unconstitutional by Supreme Court
2. People were held to ransom
3. Economic loss could be as high as Rs.750crore per bandh in Tamil Nadu
4. More over, there is no meaning for bandh as DMK is part of both state and central government and they cant do bandh against themselves. It is a total mockery.
5. Worse, the matter is sub-judice. Law minister had already submitted to court asking 3 months time.

But The Hindu didnt bother to take note on all the above. They went on abusing judiciary and didnt care to look at the basics.

Sorry State of affairs and they matched or even beat Murasoli (party organ of DMK).

Pariharam - Ram Setu

Guys... we call it workaround in IT industry... They call it "pariharam" in religious sentiment.



Why cant we build something like "Vivekanandar Rocks of Kanyakumari" in Rameswaram and make every ship to pay Rs.25,000.



Why cant we create identity for Ram Setu and make money and tourism out of it so that the memory of Ram Setu remains for long?



We are wasting enough time in something which no one can prove whether it existed or not.

on New Tamil Movie Songs

I am sick and tired of new tamil movie songs. Some 75 tamil movies come every year and most of the songs are meaningless, kuthu pattu etc...

Most of them have predictable sounds, pattern and not leading anywhere after couple of listenings.

Very few songs are good which comes from Rahman, Harris & Yuvan. I think, we deserve better songs, tunes instead of ear damaging Kuthu Pattu.

On Ram Setu Project

Who ever keen to understand the real issues behind the Sethusamudram project, pls visit this page - Nice Unbiased analysis with Data by Mr. Balakrishnan.

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/oct/01inter.htm

No punch dialogues, shady strike etc - only clear points on the topic. Thanks to Mr Balakrishnan for enlightening us.

Good Rest

I took a good rest in the past 3-4 days due to long holiday here.

Eat, Sleep and DVDs are mantra for long break.

Outlook on DOW record close

DOW closed to record high and NASDAQ scaled new peak in 6 1/2 years.

But caution is the key word now as the markets reacting too fast on expectations of further cut in interest rates. Economic improvement is some time away. Banks had done a good thing of writing-off mortgage related bad debts and thus cushioning the next quarter results.

My feeling is beware of this rally and this could fizzle out sometime in near future before december.